Week+5+Mission

=Bananas to the Island=

Below is a map which indicates where the plantations are located on the island.



Mathematical working:



To determine how many banana trees were in each plantation we first decided to work out how many trees were in each hectare:

1 Hectare= 10 000 m(2) 100/ 1.5= 66.66 trees across 100/ 3= 33.33 trees down 33.33 x 66.66 = 2178 banana trees, in each hectare

There are 5 banana plantations on the island below is a table which represents how many plants are in each plantation: Port plantation: 2211x25=55,275 plants Location: B4 || 2211x9= 19, 899 || 19, 899 Plants || Location: C7 || 2211x12.4=27,417 || 27,417 plants || Location: C8 || 2211x1.2=2,653 || 2,653 plants || Location: C5 || 2211x35.6=78,712 || 78,712 plants || Location: B6 || 2211x48.6=107,455 || 107,455 plants || Plantation D is the plantation located nearest to the Viva settlement.
 * Plantation and Location || Working Out || Total plants ||
 * Plantation A
 * Plantation B
 * Plantation C
 * Plantation D
 * Plantation E

To ensure that our estimate was more accurate some further equations were made to determine the number of banana plants will be affected between 160 days and 180 days. The equations were formulated as both the total of number of plants in plantation D 78, 712 and the total all together 236, 136: These numbers fell between the factors of 8 and 9, so the extra equations made it easier to place these values in the factorial table.
 * //**FACTORIAL EQUATION**// **//and Affected banana Plants//** || **//TOTAL NUMBER OF DAYS//** ||
 * 1x1= 1 || 0 ||
 * 1x1x2= 2 || 20 ||
 * 1x1x2x3= 6 || 40 ||
 * 1x1x2x3x4= 24 || 60 ||
 * 1x1x2x3x4x5=120 || 80 ||
 * 1x1x2x3x4x5x6=720 || 100 ||
 * 1x1x2x3x4x5x6x7=5040 || 120 ||
 * 1x1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8=40,320 || 140 ||
 * 1x1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8x9=362,880 || 160 ||


 * Number of trees affected || Total number of days ||
 * 40,320 || 160 days ||
 * 71,185 || 162.5 days ||
 * 102,050 || 165 days ||
 * 153,075 || 167.5 days ||
 * 204,100 || 170 days ||
 * 245,045 || 172.5 days ||
 * 285,990 || 175 days ||
 * 326,935 || 177.5 days ||
 * 362,880 || 180 days ||

1. How long will it take for the for plantation nearest your settlement to be totally infested?
According to the information formulated with the figures provided it will take approx 164 days to travel to Plantation D. Taking into consideration that the banana plants in the port will need to be infected first it may take 166 days to reach the plantation nearest to the Viva settlement, (this was worked out by adding the number of plants in both plantation port and D: 133, 987).

2. How long will it take for the entire Island's banana plantations to be infested?
It will take 176 days to infect the whole banana population. This was determined by adding together all the number of plants (291 411) from the plantations and the port plantation and matching it up with the table above.

3. What will be the likely impact on the economy?
The likely impact on the economy based on the figures in regards to the sale prices of bananas will be, considering that each plant has one bunch weighing 40kg (1,165,6440kg) 11, 656.44 tonne. This information tells us that if all the plants died off there will be a loss of $11,586,501.36.

// What action can be taken to prevent the spread? //

====//**The Island Economy depends greatly on the trading and exporting of the bananas. This is the Islands way of making its money and creating an income. As team Viva we have estimated that the spread of BBTV will have an enormous effect on the Islands banana production, hence effecting the Island significantly. Since the spread of the BBTV virus is instantaneous (as it has been stated that the virus spreads rapidly), it would be very difficult for the Island to come up with another form of trade in such limited time and conditions. However, luckily the Island does not solely depend on its Banana exportation for trade. It has proven its great quality and abundance with its rice and wool production also. **//====

'**//The epidemiology of BBTV is very simple and in Australia it has been effectively controlled and//** **//even eradicated from some regions through a combination of roguing, clean planting material schemes and//** **//domestic quarantine. Although it is unlikely that there is natural immunity to BBTV, partial resistance may//** **//significantly slow the pace of epidemics'. (//**//I**SHS/ProMusa symposium Recent advances in banana crop protection for sustainable production and improved livelihoods,Greenway Woods Resort, White River, South Africa. September 10-14, 2007, Programme and abstracts.) retrieved from:**//[|http] [|://bananas.bioversityinternational.org/files/files/pdf/publications/ishs_promusa_abstracts.pdf] ====//**The Island has also been marketed well so the tourism industry has been working well with the island. Since the effects of the BBTV virus have been so great the Island economy will suffer for some time, however the Island Government will work hard at the recovery of the Islands misfortune and support the Island to nourish again. **//==== // What prevention strategies can be used that have minimal impact on the environment //// ? //

====//__Chemical method:.__ First, spray an Aphicide onto infected plants to kill the aphids. They tend to gather around the main stem, just inside the leaf sheaths. This is a very important step as it prevents the aphids from spreading the virus to other un-infected plants. Next, remove the banana bunch, keeping the stem intact. Thirdly,use a screwdriver to drill a hole into the main stem of the banana plant, on a 45 degree angle, around one foot from the base of the plant. Lastly, inject each hole with full strength Bananacide in order to kill the plant. Continue to spray the Aphicide on the plant until it dies and turns brown in about 4-6 weeks. Plants can then be removed.//==== Banana Bunchy Top Virus in Hawaii (2006) College of Tropical Agricultural and Human Resources, Retrieved 19 August, 2011 from []

Another alternative for prevention of this virus spreading has been conducted and have shown positive results. Plant growth promoting rhizobacteri (PGPR) has been used and has shown to enhance resistence against fungi, bacteria and viruses. Not only does this prevent and enhance resistence against the virus it alsi enhances plant growth. __Some sustainable prevention strategies are;__ 'Aphids can be killed by spraying them with soapy water, and some insecticidal soaps are legally registered as pesticides. Insecticidal soaps have the advantage of being relatively non-toxic to people, birds, and other animals. The spray solution should be directed to the places where the aphids are most likely to be hiding or feeding. This includes the leaf petioles and the “pockets” where the petioles separate from the pseudostem. In particular, aphids can be found feeding on young suckers and down inside the whorl of the latest, unfurled leaf. After spraying the aphids, do not disturb the plant until the next day.' ( Cooperative Extension Service, ** Plant Disease; **Banana Bunchy Top Virus, retrieved from:[])

// Who might need to be warned? What do they need to be told? What are some samples of how we might communicate about the virus //// ? // **//Everybody on the Island should be informed of the virus spreading and its effects however those who are much involved with the planting and growing of the banana plants need to be informed in greater detail about the seriousness of this virus. Information briefing session may be organised in order for this to occur.//** **//-The Island's satellite networks will allow for people to communicate via phone and the internet.//**
 * //- Specialised workers on The Island, can be called and warned of the BBTV spread. ﻿ //**